Do Visa Sponsorship Trends Correlate with Economic Health? An Analysis of 6 Countries
After publishing our analysis of visa sponsorship trends across six countries, we received significant pushback from readers with on-the-ground experience.
On New Zealand:
"A good example of 'you can make data say anything'. NZ's economy is the worst many have seen, there are huge outflows of young and skilled to Australia, over half of some graduating classes even in things like nursing can't find jobs."
On Ireland:
"Ireland is much smaller than the UK and jobs are very scarce even for locals. The market is absolutely flooded. The higher number of permits was driven by healthcare and tech post-Covid, but that's over."
These comments raised a critical question: does visa sponsorship growth actually indicate a healthy economy and job market?
We decided to investigate by comparing economic indicators with visa trends across all six countries. The results should change how you evaluate destination countries.
The Hypothesis
The intuitive assumption is straightforward:
- Strong economy → more jobs → more visa sponsorship
- Weak economy → fewer jobs → less visa sponsorship
If this were true, we'd expect a clear correlation between GDP growth, unemployment rates, and visa sponsorship trends.
The Data: GDP vs Visa Trends
| Country | GDP 2024 | Unemployment | Visa Trend | Correlation? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | +2.8% | 4.1% | Uncertain | No — policy driven |
| Canada | +1.5% | 6.8% | Down 37% | Partial |
| United Kingdom | +1.0% | 4.4% | Down ~50% | No — policy driven |
| Australia | +1.3% | 4.1% | Steady | Yes |
| Ireland | +2.6% | 4.3% | Down ~20% | No — peaked |
| New Zealand | -0.5% | 5.3% | Up | No — inverse |
Sources: OECD, IMF Article IV Missions, HSBC Global Research
The pattern is striking:
- New Zealand has the worst economic performance (actual recession) but growing visa sponsorship
- Ireland has strong GDP growth but visa sponsorship is now declining
- United States has the best economic performance but faces significant visa restrictions
- Australia shows the only clear correlation — steady economy, steady visas
Case Study 1: New Zealand — Recession + Growing Visas
Economic Reality
According to HSBC Global Research, New Zealand's economy contracted by 0.5% in 2024 — the largest contraction among developed economies. The IMF projects that New Zealand will have the highest unemployment rate in the Asia-Pacific region through 2027.
Key indicators:
- GDP 2024: -0.5%
- Unemployment: 5.3% (highest since 2016)
- Job losses: ~28,000-37,000 from peak
- Nursing graduate employment: Only 45-50% finding positions
Visa Sponsorship Reality
Despite this, Accredited Employer Work Visa (AEWV) grants continue to grow:
| Year | Grants |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 22,207 |
| 2023 | 79,022 |
| 2024 | 35,411 |
| 2025 | 40,024 |
Why the Disconnect?
We analyzed the industry breakdown of New Zealand's 24,823 accredited employers:
| Industry | Employers | % |
|---|---|---|
| Accommodation and Food Services | 4,027 | 16.2% |
| Construction | 3,529 | 14.2% |
| Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing | 2,560 | 10.3% |
| Retail Trade | 2,270 | 9.1% |
| Manufacturing | 2,107 | 8.5% |
| Professional, Scientific and Technical Services | 1,692 | 6.8% |
| Other Services | 1,637 | 6.6% |
| Health Care and Social Assistance | 1,395 | 5.6% |
| Transport, Postal and Warehousing | 1,292 | 5.2% |
| Administrative and Support Services | 1,039 | 4.2% |
The top occupations receiving visas tell the story:
| # | Occupation | Grants |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Builder's Labourer | 11,681 |
| 2 | Carpenter | 8,159 |
| 3 | Chef | 6,292 |
| 4 | Personal Care Assistant | 5,612 |
| 5 | Cook | 5,320 |
| 6 | Truck Driver (General) | 4,715 |
| 7 | Dairy Cattle Farm Worker | 3,597 |
| 8 | Retail Supervisor | 3,280 |
| 9 | Aged or Disabled Carer | 3,210 |
| 10 | Painting Trades Worker | 2,725 |
Technology roles represent just 1.4% of all sponsors. The growth is in sectors where:
- Local workers don't want the jobs (hospitality, care work)
- There's structural labor shortage (construction, dairy farming)
- Pay is too low for locals but acceptable for immigrants
The Trans-Tasman Migration Context
The commenter mentioned "huge outflows to Australia." Here's the historical data (net migration in thousands):
| Year | Net Migration (thousands) |
|---|---|
| 2009 | 23.2 |
| 2010 | 15.8 |
| 2011 | 29.0 |
| 2012 | 34.5 (near record) |
| 2013 | 24.7 |
| 2014 | 7.2 |
| 2015 | 0.9 |
| 2016 | 1.5 |
| 2017 | 1.9 |
| 2018 | 3.0 |
| 2019 | 3.3 |
| 2020 | -0.4 (COVID) |
| 2021 | -2.2 (COVID) |
| 2022 | 5.3 |
| 2023 | 15.3 |
| 2024 | ~30.0 |
Source: Statista, Australian Bureau of Statistics
The current migration rate of ~30,000 per year represents a return to 2009-2013 levels, not a new phenomenon. The period of 2015-2019 with minimal migration (1,000-3,000/year) was historically unusual.
Case Study 2: Ireland — The Bubble Deflating
Our original analysis showed Ireland as a "growing" market. This was misleading. A deeper look reveals the trend has already reversed.
The Numbers
| Year | Permits |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 16,419 |
| 2021 | 16,275 |
| 2022 | 39,955 |
| 2023 | 30,981 |
| 2024 | 39,390 |
| 2025 | 31,044 |
The 2024 spike was partially driven by backlog processing. First-residence permits (new arrivals) declined 10% in 2024 compared to 2023. The 2025 numbers (~31,000) represent a 20% drop from 2024.
Tech Sector Collapse
The commenter noted that growth "was driven by healthcare and tech post-Covid, but that's over." The data confirms this:
Major layoffs in Ireland (2024-2025):
- TikTok: 550+ jobs cut
- Intel: Up to 20% workforce reduction at Leixlip facility
- Workday: 1,750 global cuts (Dublin office has 1,900+ employees)
- PayPal: 200 jobs (11% of Irish staff)
Housing Crisis
Ireland's housing crisis is among the worst in Europe:
- Dublin rent: €2,540/month average
- Nationwide rent: Surpassed €2,000/month for first time in 2025
- Available rentals: Only 1,901 homes for rent in the entire country
- Cork rent: €2,213/month (+13.6% YoY)
- Limerick rent: €2,405/month (+20.4% YoY)
The Department of Finance projects the housing crisis will last another 15 years.
Irish Citizens Leaving
The emigration data is striking:
- 2024-2025: 35,000 Irish citizens emigrated vs 31,500 returned = net outflow of 3,500
- Emigration to Australia: Up 27% year-over-year, highest level since 2013
- One-third of Irish people are considering emigrating due to housing costs (RE/MAX survey)
What Actually Drives Visa Sponsorship Trends?
Based on our analysis, we identified four primary drivers:
1. Government Policy
Policy changes have far more impact than economic conditions:
- United Kingdom: The 50% increase in salary thresholds (£26,200 → £38,700) caused visa grants to nearly halve
- Canada: Deliberate TFWP restrictions drove the 37% decline from peak
- United States: The new $100,000 per-petition fee will likely have more impact than any GDP figure
2. Sector-Specific Labor Shortages
Visa sponsorship often targets sectors with structural shortages unrelated to overall employment: hospitality, healthcare, agriculture, construction. These shortages persist even during recessions.
3. Data Lag
Visa statistics often reflect conditions 6-18 months in the past. Ireland is a prime example: the 2024 permit numbers looked strong, but first-residence permits were already declining.
4. Housing and Cost of Living
This factor is underappreciated. Ireland's visa sponsorship grew, but housing became unaffordable. Now both locals and immigrants are leaving.
Practical Recommendations
If you're targeting New Zealand:
- Understand that growth is in hospitality, construction, agriculture — not tech
- The economy is weak but specific sectors have genuine shortages
- Competition may be lower but opportunities are concentrated in specific industries
If you're targeting Ireland:
- The market has peaked and is declining
- Tech layoffs are ongoing
- Housing is a serious practical barrier
- Consider whether the quality of life trade-off is worth it
If you're targeting "declining" markets (UK, Canada):
- Higher barriers mean less competition for those who qualify
- Focus on meeting new thresholds
- Employers who continue sponsoring are more committed to the process
Key Takeaways
- Don't equate visa sponsorship growth with job market strength. New Zealand and Ireland prove these can move in opposite directions.
- Industry matters more than country-level trends. Growing visa sponsorship in hospitality has different implications than growth in technology.
- Watch for turning points. Ireland looked like it was growing — it had actually peaked.
- Factor in cost of living. A visa approval means little if you can't afford housing.
- Historical context prevents panic. NZ→Australia and Ireland→Australia migrations have historical precedent. Current numbers often represent "return to normal" rather than crisis.
The relationship between economic health and visa sponsorship is weak at best. Visa trends are primarily driven by immigration policy decisions, sector-specific labor market dynamics, data lag, and housing factors that statistics don't capture.
For job seekers considering international moves: dig deeper than headline visa numbers.
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